Political analysis and the future of the Arab Gulf

The recent massive amount of American studies, analyses and statements, both targeted and spontaneous, being pumped into the Gulf region is a clear indication that the sands along the oil coast are moving.

There is a new-old problem in understanding, or anticipating, this dangerous future that primarily targets the Middle East and the Arab nations, but today, it is in the sight of major influences in the world, both internationally and regionally.

This problem is highlighted by concentrating our sight on one dimension in understanding this future. What I am offering here, from my perspective, is not absolutely certain, and is prone to error. I am trying to draw attention and focus on the accuracy of understanding the courses of the overall vision for the region from a couple of main perspectives, in order for us not to blindly accept the general analysis and have a wrong vision of the future of the Arabian Gulf.

The perspectives today are narrowed down to the international axis led by Washington, and considered an influential axis with exclusive economic interests, as well as mutual interests shared with Europe and Japan. This is to ensure they benefit from these interests as well, in order to maintain its authority over international decisions.

Additionally, it is formed by Iran’s superiority after most of its military and political intervention in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria was successful. The bond between the Gulf States was broken as there is nothing unifying their policies, even amongst those declaring allegiance to a specific axis, as they bond with the members of their axis in complete isolation from the other Gulf States.

Within this dismantled bond, we see rifts and gaps that begin to emerge between these countries and their counterparts and even within these countries. These have now started to turn into great tensions that affect the political and social structure within the countries. Therefore, focusing on the writings of Western studies and accepting them as they are, despite the fact they are sometimes contradictory, does not give us an accurate picture.

On the other hand, changes in the Gulf countries play a role in drawing the picture of the increased intervention and the withdrawal of some powers from these axes.

In general, the scene will transform into a greater event if the on-going situation in Syria remains unchanged and if Yemen and Bahrain’s messages remain the same in response to Iran’s new advancement.

This is particularly important because the scene is no longer only made up of analyses and predictions but actual facts on the ground. These include the collapse of the idea of the Gulf Union and the indications of a new cooperation project between Iran, Oman and the UAE, which seeks to attract other capitals seeking to leave the Saudi circle and join Iran in its regional position.

Diplomatic discourse may not say that, but the reality of the movements made and the positions of the countries, as well as the network of frequent visits, suggest that Iran has become a regional partner. Iran is in demand for the Israeli security battle in the face of the Syrian revolution carried out by Iran’s huge ground support, especially in its wing in Lebanon. Therefore, Hassan Nasrallah’s most recent speech seems ironic, as he is operating under the Israeli blue Star of David and with Al-Assad’s spears, shedding the blood of children.

In any case, the real question that needs to be asked to understand the courses of analysis of the future of the region is: What about Washington, the greatest force of dominance in the history of the Arabian Gulf?

This perception does not mean Washington will leave the game entirely, but it will leave some points of interests in favour of other more “guaranteed” partners in order to gain a new share of influences. All the US policies that have been successful since the war in Afghanistan, even its support of the Russian project in Syria, if only for a while, were all mistakes, as there are significant failures recognised by Americans and exposed by the political reality.

What I mean by this is that analysing issues based solely on what institutes in Washington publish or based solely on the Arab superficial or emotional analysis that offers a vision of Washington’s new influence that is not shared with Iran and which does not intend on any logistical or geographical withdrawal from points of influence in the Arab Gulf, is a wrong perspective.

Also, the Arab Gulf, with its military bases and oil wells, still means a lot to Washington. However, there are also convictions that are based on understanding the Obama administration’s proposals and the strategic studies that suggest the current phase must include a change in positioning and accepting a partnership with Tehran, either to curb the expansion of China or to contain Iran’s influence.

Another very important issue, that cannot be overlooked, is the Western media’s coverage of the turbulence experienced by the Arab Gulf countries and the reports of governments’ denial of any dreams of political reform in the region after the unwelcomed Arab Spring.

These ideas are circulating in the community while government policies are seeking to inject more and more of these ideas in order to bring about a security escalation, contributing to the explosion in the region.

This American observation of the scene makes Washington more vital in assessing the survival of its policies, hinting to the Gulf governments that they will be held responsible for their main policies and sometimes lead to agreements that are fully compatible with Iran, as evident in the most recent situation in Bahrain.

In any case, Washington is monitoring the scene and trying to sway their unsettling policies in their favour without this posing a threat to its interests. This reaffirms the idea that after the death of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and the satisfaction with security pursuits between the Gulf States, the fierce Gulf-Gulf conflict is not only evident in the violent media wars amongst its parties but is also highlighted in projects that appear to be joint or conciliatory, but are directly related to the region’s future maps.

The conclusion today is that the balanced vision of the political analysis of the Arabian Gulf revolves around this interlocking data, which together conclude that the enhancement of tyranny in the Gulf after the Arab Spring is a meeting place for serious interests and secret agreements in preparation to announce the new Gulf split between the Iranian axis and the American centre.

Interactions inside the Gulf cannot be controlled and may result in what could be called the great explosion of the Gulf.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.