Bright signs in the Middle East

My political career began in 1991, the same year the Gulf War broke out and the Madrid Peace Conference began. The leaders at that time were fully aware of how complex the entanglement between the Palestinian issue and the other challenges in the Middle East was. It is unfortunate that the same complex entanglements still exist.

Since then, we have witnessed many initiatives, plans and projects to resolve the various Middle Eastern conflicts. Needless to say, my country, Turkey, has always been at the forefront of the international community’s efforts to secure peace, stability and cooperation in the region. I have contributed to these efforts in my capacity as a member of parliament, then prime minister, foreign minister and finally as president.

Unfortunately, these efforts have not produced the desired results, despite the high cost of resources and energy we have had to bear over the past 25 years.

As for the humble progress we have made, it was either subject to sabotage or was not enough, although thousands of innocent people have died, both inside and outside the Middle East, as victims of violence, hatred and revenge.

The massacre of civilians (including many children) in Gaza last summer, the brutality of the Islamic State (ISIS) organisation, the killing of the rabbis in a Jewish synagogue in Jerusalem and the terrorist attack in Ottawa last month, are all clear indications of the simple fact that violence is contagious.

In 1991, Saddam Hussein was the only regional threat, but today, such threats have multiplied and have left cumulative effects. For example, the United States joined forces with the Soviet Union, under the auspices of the Madrid Peace Conference, while today, the United States and Russia barely talk.

However, despite the fact that the effective regional and international players feel very frustrated by the escalation of issues in the Middle East, more pessimism will only make matters worse. Therefore, we must try to learn some lessons from the scattered positive signs and trends that have emerged over the past few months.

To begin with, the success of removing the Assad regime’s chemical weapons stockpile proves that joint efforts can yield positive results. Similarly, the parties involved in this effort have kept the promise to reach a final agreement alive by agreeing to extend the international negotiations in order to discuss Iran’s nuclear programme, which will be a great victory for multilateral diplomacy.

The success of the nuclear talks with Iran (which I was a part of in my capacity as foreign minister and president at various stages) will produce major strategic, political and economic effects in the Middle East and the world. Reaching a solution may motivate Iran to facilitate the resolution of other regional problems. In addition to this, other forces in the region that possess, or who are believed to possess, nuclear arsenal will have no excuse to oppose disarmament.

The formation of a more inclusive Iraqi government, by means of employing sound logic and coordinated efforts by effective parties inside and outside the country, is also a good sign, as were the measures taken towards resolving the disputes between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the central authorities in Baghdad. It is clear that the decision made by the Kurdistan Regional Government after it insisted on holding a referendum on independence is a good indicator and gives us hope for the potential to bring stability to Iraq and the region.

We could say the same about the coalition formed against the Islamic State (ISIS). However, despite the military gains that have become clear, “firm” force alone will not be enough to defeat this organisation. Ultimately, the solution lies in being patient while building a comprehensive political framework that gains the support of the masses and regional leaders who gave into the temptation of supporting the cause of extremists out of their feelings of hopelessness and fear.

While the use of force against ISIS may not have reached its climax yet, the mistakes made in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria must never be repeated. We must think about military exit strategies and political transition without any delays. In addition to this, since ISIS is an organisation that has come about as a result of all the political, ideological, economic and social ailments in the region, the potential solutions must be bold and comprehensive.

Furthermore, the decision made by some European governments, parties and parliaments to recognise the Palestinian state is a welcome development. It reflects the disappointment and frustration with the current diplomatic stalemate, which only Israel, and not the Palestinians, should be blamed for. We hope that this trend will encourage the efforts made by the parties in Israel and Palestine that want to reach a fair solution. It is in everyone’s interest for Israel to exercise restraint and self-discipline with regards to settlement activity in the West Bank and the situation in Jerusalem and its holy sites.

Finally, despite the fact that the Arab Spring was suffocated in every country other than Tunisia, the expectations, aspirations, and concerns of the region’s nations still remain alive and legitimate. The demands made by the Arab Spring, including democracy, wise governance, human rights, transparency, gender equality and social justice will continue to shape the regional agenda.

The question now is: How can you build on these gains and accelerate progress. Perhaps a possible constructive initiative would be to create a security system similar to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). The fact is that this vision has been present since the 1980s, but it must be kept alive despite, or especially because, the situation at the moment is not conducive for its achievement. Since this mechanism would require a strong economic cooperation dimension that includes the issues of energy and water, it is capable of encouraging long-term strategic thinking and strengthening multilateral efforts seeking to resolve problems as soon as they arise.

At the moment, the current unrest and turbulence witnessed in the Middle East is unlike anything we have ever seen before, therefore, the need for optimism is stronger than ever. Only through building on the positive developments and visions will we be able to restore and secure regional peace and stability. As for the alternative, it may be even darker than what the pessimists imagine.

The author is the former President of Turkey. This is article is translated from Al Jazeera net, 20 December, 2014

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.