Daesh will fall before the year end but the ideological war will still need to be won

Daesh, the self-declared “Islamic State”, will most likely not exist before the end of this year. Its effects, however, will last for a long, long time.

Insurgencies are usually much more effective when they are underground, but the moment that insurgents try to become permanent in a particularly noticeable way and in a visible location, they are usually doomed.

To exist and survive, insurgents need to be recognised and have support from at least one neighbouring country which can provide access to weapons and basic needs as well as a temporary refuge when necessary. Daesh doesn’t have any of that. Iraq, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Lebanon and the Syrian regime are all opposed to its existence.

Daesh/ISIS succeeded and has continued to exist for a number of reasons, most of which are no longer applicable. The Maliki administration in Iraq provided the motivation for Sunnis to revolt against the sectarian government in Baghdad. Syria’s Bashar Assad and his violent repression of his own people provided another motivation but that too has long been overtaken by Daesh’s own brutality and the exposure of its goals that are not necessarily connected with the fall or continuation of the regime in Damascus.

Perhaps the best reason to anticipate that Daesh will no longer have the comfort of physical control over land and bases in east Syria and north Iraq is the change in Turkey’s position. Ankara, which once appeared to be neutral towards the Islamic extremists, prevented the US from using NATO bases in Turkey and ensured that the movement of foreign fighters across the border – a basic ingredient of Daesh – continued uninterrupted.

The slow but forward changes in Baghdad mean that Daesh will be under military pressure in its current locations in Anbar and Mosul at the same time that the Syrian contingency will soon face the Turkish army; US fighter-bombers will also reach ISIS bases in Syria more easily now.

Possibly the last piece of the puzzle has been the Iran nuclear deal which has increased the pressure on Tehran to be part of the solution in Syria instead of being part of the problem. The meeting of senior US-Arab-Iranian officials in Doha this week is aimed at finding some kind of political track in which Iran can help end the Syrian civil war bloodshed and unify all forces against Daesh in Raqqa.

This is why I believe that 2015 will be the last year in which Daesh/ISIS can boast about a caliphate and control over land in Iraq and Syria. There is no doubt that such an eventuality will be a major blow to radical extremism in the region but it certainly will not end it. When Russian control over Afghanistan ended, many voices called for a peaceful reintegration of the mujahidin but no one wanted to do it; as a result, their dispersal played a role in the rise of Al-Qaeda a decade later.

What is needed now more than ever before is that alongside the military fight against Daesh and violent extremism, there must be a strategic plan to respond to the factors which created the environment in which Daesh and its extremism was able to take root.

A comprehensive strategy is essential to ensure that a military victory will not be wasted simply because there is no backup political and ideological plan in place. Politically, Arab countries must agree to provide the mechanism for governance that is based on a wide national identity rather than the narrow sectarian version that is one of the causes of the current crisis.

A growing segment of Arab youth who are disillusioned and lacking any positive political horizon must not be abandoned with the focus on the military objective alone. Young people want jobs and want to have reasons to be optimistic about life and the future.

So this year is likely to see the end of Caliph Baghdadi and his so called Islamic State, whether in Iraq, Syria or other countries like Libya and Yemen. But the preparation for another battle must starts now. For the military victory over Daesh to be long lasting, a simultaneous ideological war against extremism must take shape immediately with the hope that in 2016 both military and ideological battle will be won.

Daoud Kuttab is an award-winning Palestinian journalist and former Ferris Professor of Journalism at Princeton University. Follow him on twitter.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.