Has Washington determined the Riyadh Conference ceiling regarding Assad’s fate?

The Syrian proverb “running hot and cold” can be applied to the surprise that US Secretary of State John Kerry has said that it might be possible for Bashar Al-Assad’s regime and the Syrian opposition to cooperate in order to confront Daesh, even without the departure of Assad first. Kerry considers that this would be “exceedingly difficult to achieve if rebel forces that have been fighting against Assad for more than four years did not have some confidence that the Syrian leader would eventually go.” In the same context, US officials advised the Syrian opposition to adopt “innovative discourse” when talking about Assad’s fate during the negotiations of the document that will be produced in the Riyadh Conference today.

Coinciding with Kerry’s statements, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius stated: “A united Syria implies a political transition. That does not mean that Bashar Al-Assad must leave even before the transition, but there must be assurances for the future.”

Mystery still surrounds the anticipated results and conclusions of the conference, especially after talk of influential figures in the Syrian opposition being unable to attend, such as the former Syrian National Council Chairman Burhan Ghalioun, former president of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces Ahmad Mouath Al-Khatib, and others. Their absence casts a shadow of doubt on Riyadh’s success.

Syria’s citizens are now very cautious whenever a conference regarding their crisis is announced. We will soon lose count of how many capitals and cities have hosted such meetings, let alone keep track of their conclusions, even though they haven’t achieved anything tangible to alleviate the suffering in the country. Meanwhile, the international community is busy drawing a new geo-political map, not only for Syria, but also for the entire Middle East, and the Arabs are unable to work out the features. Syrians are worried every time a country announces that it has joined the coalition in the war against Daesh, as that usually leads to the group’s spread, its increase in power and influence, and a quickening of the pace of its revenge and retaliation. It also means more bombing, death, destruction and displacement for the Syrians.

If we give the benefit of the doubt and are completely optimistic in explaining the statements of both Kerry and Fabius, we would conclude that they aim to strip Russia of its excuses; it is Moscow which is holding the Assad card as the main requirement for the negotiations process. While Washington is not willing to pay a strategic price to the Russians, the Americans have not, as of this moment, given any glimmer of hope that would reinforce Syrian confidence in what they say or intend to do.

The Syrians fear for their future, the unity of their territory and the safety of their country. They also feel that after being disappointed by their regional brothers and friends, they have become a victim who is being spread around international and regional parties which have their own considerations of little concern to the Syrians. Russia’s military intervention, despite its aggression and brutality, has stirred the still waters of the conflict and exposed the hypocrisy of countries that once called themselves friends to a nation which now finds it very difficult to distinguish between friend and foe.

Translated from Alkhaleejonline, 8 December, 2015

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.