Russia, Turkey, Iran discuss dividing Syria into zones of influence

Russia, Turkey and Iran have been discussing a draft plan that would see Syria being divided into informal zones of regional influence, Reuters reported sources as saying.

According to the deal, the Syrian regime led by President Bashar Al-Assad would remain in his post until the next presidential election in 2021 when he will be replaced with a less polarising candidate from his own Alawite minority.

The sources said that “such a deal, which would allow regional autonomy within a federal structure controlled by Al-Assad’s Alawite sect, is in its infancy, subject to change and would need the buy-in of Al-Assad and the rebels and, eventually, the Gulf states and the United States”.

Under the deal, Al-Assad’s power and control would be divided between the three nations while Russia and Turkey would allow him to stay until the next presidential election.

According to the sources, Iran has yet to be persuaded of the idea, but either way Al-Assad would eventually go in a face-saving way, with guarantees for him and his family.

Andrey Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, a think tank close to the Russian foreign ministry said “there has been a move towards a compromise.”

“A final deal will be hard, but stances have shifted,” he added.

Today saw a shift towards this potential deal, as Russian President Vladmir Putin announced that a nationwide ceasefire deal had been reached between the Assad regime and the Syrian opposition. Turkey announced that Ankara and Moscow would act as guarantors of the ceasefire.

The Syrian civil war erupted in 2011 after the Assad regime used brutal force against peaceful protesters calling for reform of the government in line with the Arab Spring movement. The Assad regime has since killed almost half a million of its own citizens.