The gateway to a political solution in Syria

Syria’s truce, which is supposed to be followed by peace talks in Astana and then in Geneva, is based on the new balance of power made possible by the loss of Syrian opposition in Aleppo. Although Ankara, which is supposedly Russia’s partner in arranging the ceasefire, still adheres to an escalatory political discourse towards the regime in Syria, it does not have the luxury of making demands that cannot be met in light of the current balances of power.

It is an irony of great military and political significance to find that Russia is the one securing air cover for Turkish troops fighting “Daesh” in Al-Bab in the province of Aleppo  and not the international coalition led by the United States as it’s supposed to.

Turkish-American relations got to a level of intensity where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused the coalition of supporting “terrorist groups” and not Turkish army or Syrian opposition factions which are backed by Ankara.

This is Russia’s moment in Syria and in the Middle East in general. It is clear that Moscow wanted the battle of Aleppo to be the gateway to a political solution that saves Syria from further destruction and blood and from the likelihood of Russia itself sinking in a long war of attrition in Syria.

It is not a passing event that President Barack Obama has signed, just before his departure from the White House, a law in favour of arming the Syrian opposition with shoulder-fired missiles. This indicates that Washington is trying to prolong the Syrian war and turn it into an attrition war for Russia and Iran.

In return, Moscow believes that if Turkey were a serious partner in the search for a political solution, it would neutralise a broad part of the Syrian opposition, which takes Istanbul as a base, as well as the military factions that rely on arming and funding from Turkey. From the very beginning, Russia had adopted an approach based on the involvement of all the regional powers in the Syrian solution, but these powers, with Turkey at the forefront, up until the battle of Aleppo, were not convinced of a political solution and were hoping to change the military situation in favour of the opposition.

But Aleppo, after one year of Russian intervention, persuaded Turkey that it is difficult to proceed with the military option especially after Syria’s Kurds emerged as an entity that enjoys absolute American support; a matter that intensified the Turkish-American dispute.

At this moment, the Russian political momentum came to provide a way out for Turkey and for many factions of the Syrian opposition, which now consider proceeding with the military option to be tantamount to political suicide.

Translated from Arabi21, 31 December 2016.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.