Creating new perspectives since 2009

Poll: 50% of Israel voters undecided who to vote for

March 6, 2019 at 1:30 am

Israel’s Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu delivers a speech during the launch of the Likud party election campaign on 4 March 2019 [Amir Levy/Getty Images]

A new opinion poll has shown that it will be very difficult for the head of Kahol Lavan’s electoral list, Benny Gantz, to form the next government in the wake of the Knesset elections, which will take place on 9 April. On the other hand, chairman of the Likud Party and the Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, still has wide popularity although Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit had published a list of serious corruption violations against him, including bribery and dishonesty. However, another opinion poll has shown that nearly half the voters have not yet decided on the candidate for which they will vote.

According to an opinion poll published by Walla! Website on Tuesday, if elections are held now, Kahol Lavan will be the winning list, with 36 seats in the Knesset, while Likud would gain the second place, with 31 seats. However, according to this opinion poll, the camp of right and left wing parties will win over the camp of the so-called centric-left parties and the Haredi parties as the first will win 61 seats and the other will obtain 59 seats, including the seats of the Arab parties. The opinion poll has also predicted that the United Arab List and National Democratic Assembly (Balad) list would not exceed the electoral threshold, nor would Yisrael Beiteinu party, headed by Avigdor Lieberman and Gesher party, headed by Orly Levy-Abekasis.

In addition to the Likud party will win 31 seats. The right wing and the Haredi parties will together win 30 seats in the Knesset. Seven seats will go to the Union of Right-Wing Parties, seven seats for the United Torah Judaism, six seats for the New Right, six seats for Kulanu party, and four seats for Shas party.

READ: Political stalemate could produce second Israel election in 2019

The centric-left parties will win 59 seats, including 36 seats for Kahol Lavan party, eight seats for the Labour Party, six seats for Meretz party, and nine seats for the Arab Movement for Renewal (Ta’al). In case the three parties mentioned above exceed the electoral threshold, they will be able to change the balance of power in the Knesset, although Kahol Lavan will still have low chances to form the government.

Another opinion poll, published by Keshet 12 TV channel, has shown on Tuesday that half the voters are still confused and hesitant about which party or list for which they will vote. The opinion poll has also shown that many respondents believe that it is not important who will form the next government, as politics will not change.

#IsraElex19: Israeli Elections 2019

Everything you need to know >>

According to this opinion poll, conducted by the Israel Democracy Institute, the most important issue for voters is the parties’ position in socio-economic issues.

Twenty-five per cent of the respondents said they would decide the party they would vote for based on the parties’ socio-economic positions. Eighteen per cent of the respondents said their vote would be based on the name of the party’s leader.  16.5 per cent said they would vote based on foreign policy and security programs. Ten per cent indicated that their voting would be according to the party’s composition of the list of candidates while 6.5 per cent considered that they would vote according to the party’s performance in the last session of the Knesset.

INTERVIEW: What would a non-colonial State of Israel look like?

In contrast, 30 per cent of the respondents said that the elections would be won according to the security situation programs. Twenty-two per cent said that electoral programs about the living and housing costs would be decisive in the elections would while 19 per cent said that the results of the investigations against Netanyahu would likewise affect the election results.

The opinion poll also tackled the extent of the voters’ satisfaction from the list of party candidates. The Labour Party gained first place by 41 per cent. Forty per cent of the voters said they were satisfied with the list of candidates of this list. Thirty-nine per cent said they were confident with the Haredi lists, 30 per cent were satisfied with the Likud list, while 24 per cent were satisfied with the Meretz list.

On the other hand, only 19 per cent said they were satisfied with the list of candidates of Kahol Lavan, although they announced that they would vote for this list. 13.5 per cent of the New Right voters expressed their support for the party’s list of candidates.

Alliances between the parties, such as the formation of the Kahol Lavan and the far-right parties’ alliance have confused voters. Forty-four per cent of the voters said these changes do not influence them. The biggest confusion has occurred among the voters of the centric-left parties. Sixty-seven per cent of centre wing party voters, 52 per cent of left-wing party voters and 48 per cent of right-wing party voters, said they were hesitant about the party for which they would vote.

Almost half of the voters felt that the policy of the government, which would be formed after the elections, will not be different from the policy of previous governments, especially in terms of foreign policy and security toward Palestinians, or socio-economic issues.

The opinion poll has equally dealt with to the Deal of the Century that US administration officials announced it would be put forward after the Knesset elections. Nineteen per cent of the respondents said that the Deal would lead to a peace agreement between Israelis and Palestinians, while 71 per cent ruled out that this is less likely, or too less likely, to happen.