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Will Xi and Putin succeed in creating a ‘new era’?

February 10, 2022 at 3:02 pm

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chinese President Xi Jinping (R) meet in Beijing, China on 4 February 2022 [Kremlin Press Office/Anadolu Agency]

Putin used his visit to Beijing on Friday, 4 February, to promote a new gas deal with China, estimated at $117.5 billion to escape the expected sanctions of NATO and the EU in the event of failure to reach an agreement on Ukraine and the guarantees requested by Russia in Eastern Europe.

The new gas deal joined a previous deal to supply Russian gas to China through the 8,000 km Power Siberia gas pipeline coming from eastern Russia through eastern China. It has supplied Beijing with more than 10 billion cubic meters of gas over the past three years, and it is expected that the Mongolian gas pipeline from Russia will join it.

Gas alliance in the face of sanctions

Beijing has found in Russian gas a safe haven that can reduce dependence on Australian gas, as China imports 40 per cent of its needs from the troublesome trading partner Australia; a partner who has not stopped criticising Beijing on the pretext of being responsible for the outbreak of the coronavirus at times, and for violating the human rights of the Muslim Uighur minority and Hong Kong citizens, in violation of the one country- two systems agreement in Hong Kong, at other times.

The criticisms coming from the Australian capital, Canberra, quickly turned into a direct security threat to Beijing after Canberra joined the AUKUS security agreement that includes Australia, England, and the US to supply Canberra with 12 nuclear-powered submarines.

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The economic risks of Beijing’s dependence on Australian gas have increased, just as the risks of Russia’s dependence on the European energy market have increased due to the crisis in Ukraine and the repeated threats to impose sanctions on Moscow, which supplies the European continent with 30 per cent of its needs. It had aspired to double its exports through the operation of the Nord Stream pipeline in the Baltic Sea towards Germany.

Concerns strengthened the Russian-Chinese rapprochement through the joint declaration signed by Chinese President, Xi Jinping, and Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in Beijing, last Friday, to bypass the energy weapon by limiting producers and the market.

Beijing Joint Declaration

The Chinese-Russian rapprochement was not limited to gas, but extended to major strategic files such as the issue of nuclear proliferation, getting rid of chemical weapons and biological weapon laboratories, and the issue of NATO expansion and the establishment of new alliances in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.

This rapprochement was embodied by the Russian-Chinese joint declaration of Presidents Putin and Xi at the Beijing Summit. The statement emphasised the rejection of NATO’s eastward expansion near the Russian border, declaring Beijing’s solidarity with Moscow’s demands to provide written and legal guarantees to prevent the expansion of NATO near its borders. It was matched by Russian support for China in its criticism of the AUKUS alliance, which includes Australia, England and America in the Indo-Pacific. The statement warned against the AUKUS agreement as a threat to security and stability in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

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The Chinese-Russian joint declaration was not without clear indications of Russian support for the one-China principle in return for Chinese support for Russia’s position in eastern Ukraine.

A new era

The Chinese Summit culminated the efforts of five years of cooperation and rapprochement between the two countries, hoping to establish a new era of multi-polarity, which the Chinese and Russian Presidents stressed at the joint Summit in Beijing.

The hope for the new era is not to depend in its structure on the military and nuclear power of states or military alliances alone, or even on the various economic structures. These structures that Moscow and Beijing seek to develop are by introducing SWIFT financial transfer systems that go beyond the current financial system controlled by America and its allies through 3,000 financial institutions.

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Beijing and Moscow seek to support this system by increasing trade exchange between the two countries, which witnessed a significant increase last year by 34 per cent to reach $140 billion, with expectations that it will rise to $200 billion in 2022 after signing 14 trade agreements between the two countries. China and Russia are also seeking to support it by opening the door to new markets and new institutional and financial structures, most notably the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank or the OPEC + agreement that Russia contributed to achieving in 2017.

Finally, the Beijing Summit between Chinese President, Xi Jinping, and Russian President, Vladimir Putin, is the first summit of its kind that presented a clear and explicit vision of a multi-polar system. The allusions turned into declarations, positions, and semi-announced alliances between the two countries to establish a multi-polar economic and security system.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 10 February 2022

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.