Messages from Hezbollah's drones

For the second time in 24 hours, Israel announced it shot down a drone that crossed into its airspace from the Lebanese borders. Are we facing a new stage of escalations between Hezbollah and Israel or is the matter just Hezbollah displaying the new power its Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, mentioned a few days ago when he said the group had the ability to produce drones and that a number of its missiles have become accurate and precise? This proves the failure of Israel’s efforts to stop Hezbollah from gaining new and advanced weaponry.

However, it is ironic that this is occurring at a time when there has been much talk in Israel about the US Special Envoy, Amos Hochstein, being close to settling the conflict between Lebanon and Israel regarding the demarcation of maritime borders by proposing a practical solution, stipulating that the international companies return to oil exploration in the contested area and split the revenues between the two countries after it is extracted. He also proposed appointing a mediator accepted by both parties to oversee the operation. Unfortunately, the information regarding the demarcation of the maritime borders is mainly drawn from Israeli sources, because Lebanon’s comments on this topic, both officially and in the media, lack transparency and are ambiguous, as well as being subject to contradicting and conflicting claims according to the party they are issued from, and according to the interests of one political party or another.

It is also strange that Hezbollah’s attempts to prove its new military capabilities is also occurring in light of talk about the parties in the nuclear negotiations in Vienna being close to agreeing to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, with minor amendments. This raises the question: What is the point of the drone messages now?

Read: Lebanon’s Hezbollah says it successfully flew drone over Israel

Israel’s explanation of what is happening is that Hezbollah is, as usual, always trying to test Israel’s preparedness and the speed of its operational response. Israel also believes that Hezbollah also wants to prove that it truly does possess new capabilities and that the drones it is currently using for reconnaissance may be armed in the next confrontation, making the next war drastically different to the previous ones. Also, that Hezbollah wants to send a message to the Israelis, especially given the Israeli silence, at least officially, about Nasrallah’s recent revelation of his group’s new military capabilities, so it launched two drones in less than 24 hours from Lebanon to tell the Israelis: You must take the group’s Secretary-General’s words seriously, because we actually disturb the security of your residents in the north whenever we want and force your army to raise their level of preparedness on the northern borders. Truth be told, this falls within the psychological war that Hezbollah has mastered. Moreover, both Hezbollah and Israel understand that neither the time nor the conditions are conducive to sparking a security escalation on the borders and that any such action would be suicidal. The last thing the Lebanese people can bear today is a new military confrontation with Israel, given the terrible conditions they are currently living under.

Despite this, the drones are also a message directed at the Lebanese interior and to Hezbollah’s opponents, who have been more critical of the group lately, and accused it of being responsible for the economic collapse suffered by Lebanon because it is protecting the corrupt political system and the major crisis it caused with the Gulf countries. Hezbollah wants to remind everyone that it not only determines Lebanon’s foreign policy, draws the line that the Lebanese government must follow, and controls its decisions, but that it also draws Lebanon’s strategy on the southern borders and is able to impose new rules in the next military confrontation.

Israel’s dealing with Hezbollah’s threats recently is reminiscent of its dealing with Hamas’s threats in Gaza, as Israel is well aware that Hezbollah is currently unable to get involved in a military confrontation against it and that it is not in the group’s interest to cause a security escalation that would hinder the efforts made by the US, related to resolving the maritime demarcation conflict. It is also aware that Hezbollah wants these efforts to succeed, given Lebanon’s dire need for the future gas revenues. This is exactly how Israel is aware that, despite its constant threats to Israel, it is not in Hamas’s best interest to engage in a new round of confrontations with Israel after the facilitations Israel has offered Gaza’s residents and Hamas’s need to reconstruct Gaza and rebuild its military power.

Read: Israeli army fails to intercept drone fired from Lebanon

In other words, Israel is counting on the major economic crisis the Lebanese people and the people of Gaza are currently suffering to act as a deterrent against dangerous security setbacks with Lebanon and Gaza. This reliance is very risky because those controlling the military force of Hezbollah and Hamas are not necessarily local parties, but rather their regional sponsor, Iran, and because the interests of the people in Lebanon and Gaza are not the only factors controlling the state of war and peace.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on 22 February 2022

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.