As Egypt’s election looms, the deep state can’t afford to ignore the largest political faction

Since the 2013 coup against the first elected president, Egypt has been living through political absurdity that cannot even be called satire. It is little more than stand-up by a comedian who lacks presence and whose jokes fall flat.

The regime of Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi is basically a Stalinist phase after a coup against the reformist, socialist democratic government elected after the 2011 January Revolution. He has faced intense political, legal and media condemnation, especially since US President Joe Biden took office, and has had no option but to hold a formal national dialogue and a presidential election to improve his image.

The coup leader infiltrated the ranks of the revolutionaries in 2011 and drove deep wedges in the ranks thanks to the response of liberal and leftist forces who believed that an institution — the military establishment — that had infiltrated regimes for over sixty years would lead a coup to serve the state to them on a platter.

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The 2023 presidential election will be a repeat of the 2005 election, when Ayman Nour ran against Hosni Mubarak, and of the 2014 election, when the liberal and leftist forces supporting the coup realised too late that they had fallen into Al-Sisi’s trap. They decided to rally behind Hamdeen Sabahi, who lost, just as he lost in 2012.

The 25 January revolution/30 June anti-coup bloc ignored the fact that a defence minister who was working as the head of military intelligence broke his oath, turned against his elected president and committed the most horrific massacres in Egypt’s modern history. Such a person will not leave power, even after an election, as he is not so naive as to give up his immunity voluntarily and face prosecution.

Al-Sisi has spent astronomical sums on vanity projects and surrounded himself with luxury, including more palaces and private aircraft. Does anyone seriously think that he has done this only for another president to enjoy them?

The former general proves in every speech that he was the third party in the January Revolution, just as he was the first party in the coup against it. This was made even clearer this week when he insulted — as usual — the dignity of the Egyptians and described them as a bunch of destitute addicts against whom he is willing to ignite a counter-revolution to confront any attempt to overthrow him.

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Al-Sisi declared his war on terrorism — the generic euphemism now used by dictators to describe any political opposition — and militarised Egypt; strengthened the army and police headquarters; established surveillance systems and barriers across the governorates; neglected the railways in order to control the mobility of citizens; doubled the number of prisons and detention centres; restructured state institutions; and changed the constitution and laws. This all indicates that he was involved deeply in implementing the movements that ignited Egypt 12 years ago. He is determined to erase anyone from the face of the earth who might come close to displacing him, and will not allow a repeat of what happened in January 2011. The man has big dreams and will not let go of power before he fulfils them. He did not get where he is now in order to share or hand over power.

The people are being sold an illusion with a false election giving “democratic” credibility to a pre-determined result in favour of the military establishment

READ: Egypt journalist slams Sisi regime over ‘engineered elections’

Eleven years ago, the deep state rejected the gains of the January Revolution, which were represented by legislative and executive institutions that came about through a free and fair election. The people were accused of stupidity and ignorance, and became foot soldiers whose blood and arrests were points scored by politicians for whom the mobilisation of citizens was harmless.

I remember Wael Ghoneim as one of the most prominent young people of the January Revolution. The revolution sparkled in his mind, he said, but then he reconsidered his thoughts years later to discover that he was wrong. Why do these forces treat the people with such disdain and not take responsibility for their choices? Why are their decisions, regardless of the results, considered steps on the road to success?

Today, the opposition is led by Ahmed Al-Tantawi, a founding member of the Nasserist Dignity Party. He participated in the coup against the elected president after the January Revolution and won a seat in a coup parliament that does not accept anyone as a member without appropriate security clearance. Although he tries to appear as inclusive, he relies in his election campaign on the most important gain of the coup based on which he receives the support of the opposition, which is the removal of the strongest political faction in Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood.

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I will assume, for the sake of argument, that the opposition’s dream has come true and Tantawi becomes president of the Egypt. Will he be able to restructure institutions, choose ministerial portfolios, change economic systems and political orientations, request a review of judicial rulings, and provide services to the people without support from the military establishment?

The deep state maintains its military grip on every aspect of life in Egypt, from the price of a loaf of bread and a drink of water, to petrol, electricity and gas. That’s how it was able to stage the coup against President Mohamed Morsi and destroy the progress made during his year in office.

The military’s sense of superiority over civilians came to the fore when the Freedom and Justice Party nominated Morsi as its presidential candidate after the revolution. Al-Sisi warned then that any party or group other than the army would not be able to lead Egypt because the armed forces are larger than any faction. If this was the view about the 90-year-old Muslim Brotherhood, then how is the military-run state going to accept any candidate who might prosecute the incumbent president?

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The problem with the deep state is that it is still digging itself into a hole to get away from the Brotherhood, even though it offers the only way out of the mess that Al-Sisi has got the country into. Will it wait until Al-Sisi serves 30 years like Mubarak before doing anything to save Egypt and its people?

The forces of the deep state need to take a step back, reconsider and accept that ignoring a faction of the size of the Brotherhood will lead Egypt to nothing but more oppression and tyranny. It must communicate with the movement, and develop detailed post-nightmare plans with its leaders.

I believe that the Brotherhood is not waiting for apologies and any sense of remorse, as there is no longer room for further debate. It is waiting for restoration and the correction of a perilous situation, but will not accept more allegations, defamation, exclusion, condescension and imposed conditions.

Having rational, impartial, national forces drafting the executive plans for governance in Egypt represents the end of the chaos that the country has witnessed for many decades. I pray for everyone’s guidance and success.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.