With Biden stepping down, will Harris win the White House for the Democrats?

Joe Biden has finally agreed to withdraw from the US presidential race following a backlash from campaign donors after his poor showing on the CNN Presidential Debate on 27 June and intense pressure from colleagues. Vice President Kamala Harris now appears to have enough endorsements to accept the nomination as the Democratic Party candidate in the November election when almost 4,000 delegates gather next month at the Democratic National Convention (DNC) in Chicago. A candidate needs to obtain the votes of 1,986 of the delegates.

I wrote in March that Biden might withdraw from the presidential race and that Kamala Harris, Michelle Obama and Gavin Newsom were strong contenders for the Democratic nomination. I also noted that such a scenario could be more challenging for the Republican candidate, Donald Trump.

Key party figures, such as Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Senators Tim Kaine and Tammy Baldwin, along with prominent campaign donors, view Harris as the leading candidate. Biden and Harris spearheaded a major campaign committee in the second quarter, raising $270 million. It is anticipated that if Harris is indeed the nominated candidate next month, her access to campaign funds will remain unaffected.

As of 30 June, the Biden-Harris campaign committee had $96m in important funds. This belongs to that specific joint campaign team, meaning only Biden and Harris can control it. If someone other than Harris is nominated, the Biden-Harris campaign could transfer the funds to a federal super PAC (political action committee). The rules of the US Federal Election Commission (FEC) will allow Biden’s campaign to transfer up to $32m to the Democratic National Committee, and these funds can be spent in coordination with the new candidate’s campaign.

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According to the Leadership Now Project, federal contribution limits restrict transfers between candidates to $2,000 per election. Hence, if someone other than Harris is selected as the Democratic presidential candidate, the campaign would need to return the funds to donors, which could complicate matters.

Kamala Harris’s strengths extend beyond the complex management of campaign funds, which could also lead to legal challenges from Republicans.

At 59, Harris has substantial campaign experience from 2020 and has been involved deeply in policy work as vice president.

Her contributions to significant Democratic legislation, such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors for America Act (CHIPS), are noteworthy. Her advocacy for abortion rights and efforts in states like Wisconsin, Arizona and Florida have been particularly motivating for Democratic voters and women.

As a Black and South Asian woman, Harris also brings a unique ethnic background to the table. If she becomes the Democratic presidential candidate, she could be seen as a younger and more charismatic alternative to the 78-year-old Republican in the race, former President Donald Trump. This has the potential to excite many Democratic voters.

One of Harris’s main disadvantages is that all criticism of the Biden administration will also be directed at her, as she would be seen as a continuation candidate from the current administration. This could be problematic for Democrats dissatisfied with the status quo and who seek change. Moreover, some polls show that Harris might even lag behind Biden, raising concerns about her prospects.

There may also be delegates who fear losing votes from voters unwilling to support a Black woman for president. To address this, Harris should probably announce her vice-presidential running mate before the Democratic National Convention. California Governor Newsom could be a strong choice to complement her and address any perceived gaps, assuming he does not seek the presidential nomination himself.

For the US establishment, the 2024 presidential election is of paramount importance, given the stakes of potentially leaving the country’s future in the hands of someone like Trump again. The US aims to strengthen its position globally while avoiding direct conflict with China. The prolonged Ukraine-Russia conflict keeps Russia, a potential Chinese ally, occupied, and helps maintain European and NATO alignment with the US. Significant steps have been taken under Biden in this regard, but a Trump presidency could introduce uncertainties that might jeopardise these plans. Trump’s actions, particularly if he weakens support for Ukraine or targets NATO and other allies, could diminish US global power against China.

In this context, it is vital for the establishment to select a candidate capable of securing victory. Although Kamala Harris might rally some supporters, particularly in the wake of Biden’s withdrawal, her lower popularity in certain polls compared with Biden and her potential vulnerabilities against Trump pose significant challenges. As I noted in December last year, a more compelling candidate might be a well-known figure from outside the Biden administration, such as Michelle Obama. The hesitation of prominent figures like Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer to endorse Harris suggests that alternative options have been explored. Whatever happens, Biden’s withdrawal from the race for the White House makes the election campaign that little more interesting and difficult to call.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.