While civilians face starving to death, the end of the battle for Sudan is nowhere in sight

The assassination attempt of the leader of the Sudanese Armed Forces, Abdul Fatah Al-Buhan, comes a day after he visited Egypt to drum up support for his war effort and signals that the divide between the two warring sides is widening.

Fifteen months after the start of the brutal civil war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), five people were killed at a military parade, but Al-Burhan escaped with his life. At the time of writing, the RSF have not claimed responsibility for the drone attack on the Gebeit military base in eastern Sudan. In a written statement, the SAF reported that “our anti-aircraft missiles shot down two enemy drones targeting the graduation ceremony of our military, air and naval forces in Gebeit.”

The attack is indicative of the paramilitary force which continues to stage hit and run attacks as part of its touted “popular” revolution against the Islamic remnants of the ousted former President of Sudan, Omar Al-Bashir. Coupled with the RSF’s slick media war, at first glance it appears the paramilitary force is in the ascendency. The group’s media team continues to produce high quality posts on social media announcing great victories and portray the humanitarian services it provides in the areas under its control. However, in reality, the RSF controls a little less than 35-40 per cent of the country.

Arguably, the RSF’s limited progress has been impeded by the lack of a nationwide command structure. Without a central base the group relies on skirmishes designed to destabilise the national army. Last month, the RSF announced on social media platform X that its forces seized an army headquarters and the bridge linking Sinnar and Gedaref states. According to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), “Over 55,400 people fled Singa,” the capital city of Sinnar State, due to the clashes.

The victims of these tactical surprise operations and counter attacks by both sides have resulted in internal and external displacement and high estimated civilian death. Many Sudanese are convinced that neither side wants peace or are committed to work for the interest of the Sudanese people. Both sides have been accused of sexual violence and indiscriminate genocidal acts and massacres across the country but especially in the Darfur region.

HRW: 9-year-old girls gang raped by militias in Sudan

With huge splits and disagreements among the political elites there are no signs of a move towards peace or towards the original demands of the Sudan Political commentator Mekki Al-Mograbi, arguably reflecting the feeling of Sudanese in his Facebook post. “That logic is with a founding period and not a transitional one. Any insistence by Al-Burhan or others on not forming a government or a real civilian prime minister, would be a facade,” he said.

Despite attempts by former Prime Minister, Abdullah Hamdok, who resides in the UAE, to broker a meeting between army leader, Al-Burhan, and RSF chief, Mohammed Hamdan ‘Hemedti’ Dagalo. The positions between the two sides have been polarised by on-going accusations that the government in the Emirates is supporting the RSF militarily.

Speaking last month, Al-Burhan made a clear statement whilst not mentioning those who were supporting the RSF, “We will not negotiate with a person who supports his enemy and stands with him. It’s our responsibility to get our fighters ready with equipment needed for the battle. We are totally confident in our people and our soldiers and with the will of God we will be victorious!”

READ: Bin Zayed affirms support for Al-Burhan for ending Sudan war

However, Sudan’s ambassador to the UN was clearer in a session at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) in June. Al-Harith Idriss Al-Harith Mohamed accused the UAE of arming the RSF militia and insisted that the Sudanese government has evidence of the weapons supply which it will submit in a file to the International Criminal Court (ICC). Following the session, he stressed to reporters that the Security Council must “walk the extra mile by naming and shaming the United Arab Emirates.” In response, the UAE’s Ambassador, Mohamed Abushahab, called Sudan’s accusation “ludicrous” and claimed it was made as a distraction from the “grave violations that are happening on the ground.”

Meanwhile, the deepening humanitarian crisis has forced many political groups to suspend or abandon political activities in an effort to concentrate on saving the lives of citizens in danger. Groups such as the Salafiah, the Annar Sunnah movement and the (original) Muslim Brotherhood have broadened the relief work they carry out across the country. With approximately 25.6 million people, about half of Sudan’s population, projected to face crisis or worse levels of food insecurity, if no political or military solution is found, aid agencies estimate that 2.5 million people could starve to death by September. Although the actual numbers threatened are unclear; what is clear is the end of the battle for Sudan is nowhere in sight.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.