Netanyahu predicted to retain premiership but his party to lose election

The competition for the upcoming Israeli parliamentary elections continues to be heated despite the fact that the results already seem clear, the map of the participating party blocs participating are already known, and we already know what the ballot box is likely to produce.

Nevertheless, the current fears felt by the Israeli political elite regarding the Palestinian Authority’s draft resolution at the UN Security Council are sure to quickly disappear in the face of US and Western support, which may abort the project by means of its veto power in the Security Council.

In the context of his election campaign against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman said that, “the policy of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is to keep the status quo, has failed” with regard to the situation in the West Bank and the relationship with the Palestinian Authority.

Israeli National Radio quoted Lieberman as warning against the consequences of “the deterioration of the relations between Israel and the European Union unless a political settlement is reached with the Palestinians.” The Radio also noted that during a closed meeting with businessmen at the University of Tel Aviv, Lieberman mentioned “the importance of Israeli-European relations.” What matters most to Israel are its international relations with the EU countries that are recognising the independence of Palestine, albeit timidly in their parliaments.

The Israeli foreign minister added that “the continuation of the political stalemate may lead to the imposition of European economic sanctions on Israel.”

Netanyahu’s decision to halt settlement negotiations with the Palestinians last April has led many European parliaments to demand that their governments recognise the Palestinian state. It has also led to the EU’s imposition of restrictions on the products made in settlements built in the Palestinian territories.

This is not the first time that Lieberman has directed similar criticisms to Netanyahu’s policy, as he made the same criticisms just last week.

However, sources in the right-wing Likud Party, led by Netanyahu, consider Lieberman’s criticisms of the prime minister’s policy as an “indication that the Foreign Minister is leaning towards the left-wing camp.”

Israel National Radio also quoted these sources, which it did not name, saying that “those who vote for Lieberman are actually supporting a left-wing government headed by Tzipi Livni (leader of the centre-left party Hatnuah “The Movement” and former Minister of justice) and Yitzhak Herzog (leader of the opposition Labour Party) as well as the establishment of a terrorist Palestinian state near Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and Kfar Saba.”

Recent Israeli public opinion polls show that the bloc led by Herzog and Livni has become stronger than the Likud Party.

Lieberman’s position on government coalitions after the elections scheduled next march is still not clear, but last week he said that “there is no difference between any of the blocs when it comes to forming the next government.”

However, an opinion poll showed a high level of support for Netanyahu as prime minister, while it showed a decrease in the number of seats for his party in the Knesset, putting it in second place in terms of number of seats.

A survey conducted by a research firm for Israel’s Channel 10 indicated that 38 per cent of the respondents prefer Netanyahu as prime minister, while 32 per cent prefer Labour Party leader Yitzhak Herzog and 30 per cent are undecided.

On the question of the individual best able to address the high poverty rate, former Likud leader Moshe Kahlon received 33 per cent of the vote, Herzog 22 per cent, Netanyahu 15 percent, the leader of Yesh Atid Party, Yair Lapid, received 15 percent and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman received 4 per cent of the vote.

With regards to the number of seats in the next Israeli Knesset, the joint list shared by the Labour and Hatnuah parties, led by Herzog and Tzipi Livni, came out on top with 22 seats, while Likud had 21 and the Jewish Home 17.

Former Israeli Knesset member and leader of the Likud party, Danny Danon, has begun collecting signatures from members of the Central Election Commission in order to prevent the Arab MP Hanin Zoabi from running in the upcoming Knesset elections, Israel’s Channel 1 reported.

It also added that, “Danon said the reason for his action is the statement made by Zoabi against Israel during the war on Gaza. Zoabi described the war on Gaza as ‘brutal’, and refused to condemn the resistance of the Palestinian people, describing it as ‘self-defence’.”

Although the signatures of one-third of the members of the committee must be collected for this measure to be taken, the Central Election Commission is composed of the president of the Israeli Supreme Court and representatives from all Israeli parliamentary blocs.

Netanyahu may win the war over the prime minister’s chair with no real competition, but his party is tottering under the weight of political fragmentation and will not be able to support him much in his position. This is especially true if the cycle of alliances that has led to the dissolution of the current government continues. This means that the next government is not expected to last long.

Translated from Felesteen newspaper, 27 December, 2014

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.