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Towards a new structuring of the Arab region?

September 24, 2015 at 8:50 am

Informed political sources in Beirut are saying that the activation of the Russian military role in Syria while the Iranian role has regressed over the past few days under America-Saudi-Turkish supervision will result in an important development in the next phase. This development will occur in the context of reforming the Arab region and current alliances by means of events in both Syria and Yemen.

These sources explain that current developments and political communications occurring in Yemen and Syria suggest that the Arab region will enter a new stage in the next few days. This new phase will include the rearrangement of longstanding situations and alliances, especially since Iran’s nuclear agreement with the global superpowers comes into effect once the final approval is issued by the Iranian Shura Council. This is after members of Congress opposed to the agreement failed to hinder it.

The sources also note that in exchange for the benefits Iran is gaining from the agreement, including the lifting of sanctions, the improvement of the economic and financial situation, and the reinforcement of its regional role, we are witnessing the regression of the Iranian role in the two main arenas, i.e. Yemen and Syria. In Yemen, the retreat of Iran benefits Saudi Arabia and its allies, while in Syria it benefits Russia. This may pave the way for reaching settlements in these two countries by taking into consideration the interests of all the regional and international key players.

In addition to this, the sources say that after Iran’s nuclear deal negotiations, and after an agreement was reached in this regard, we started to see a decline in Iran’s role and a growth of the role of Saudi Arabia and its allies in Yemen. This was followed by Russia’s military role in Syria, which occurred without any opposition or objection from America, Turkey and Saudi Arabia; some have even suggested Russia will take the place of Iran in Syria and the wider region.

Based on this information, political sources in Beirut expect there to be an acceleration in negations regarding the Yemeni and Syrian files over the next three months, aiming to reach political solutions that take into consideration military and grassroots variables, especially in light of the negative impact the Yemeni crisis has had on the financial and political situation in Gulf. In addition, the response of European countries to the Syrian refugee crisis has led European and American officials to take action to initiate communication with the Russians in order to find a political solution to the Syrian war that includes a transitional phase in which Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad can play a part. This should lead to the conducting of parliamentary and presidential elections which would contribute to the selection of a new leadership in Syria.

Political sources in Beirut believe that the Arab region is currently witnessing a transitional phase – or what can be called a reformation or restructuring – and that the role of regional and international parties will develop over the next few months. They also believe that the idea of geographic and constitutional division will be ruled out due to the great dangers it poses to powerful regional countries, and instead, the parties will be content with the redistribution of the roles of countries in the region by not allowing any one country to monopolise power.

The sources also point out that Turkey and Russia will be the key players in Syria at the expense of the Iranian role, while Iran will be the strongest player in Iraq and Saudi Arabia will go back to playing the main role in Yemen. As for Lebanon, power will remain divided amongst a number of countries, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia, with continuous international and regional backing.

These are the facts according to the political sources in Beirut, and we will wait to judge their soundness over the next few weeks and before the end of the year.

Translated from Arabi 21, 23 September 2015.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.