Trump’s policies and motives behind them require further understanding, along with their impact on the American internal affairs, and, more importantly, on the international and regional situation. This also includes the major issue in the Middle East, the conflict with the Zionist project.
It is difficult to discuss all of them in this article, but I will try to be brief and get the message across as best as possible.
We must begin with the Mueller investigation and the conclusion he came to, i.e. not convicting Trump of any crimes. Here, I can simply say, as I have said on numerous occasions in the past that the decision in the report was influenced by the deep state more than it is the result of a completely independent investigation. The deep state was aware that directly convicting Trump would have major consequences for the domestic situation in the US and directly impact the state’s structure and status.
They realised that such consequences were much more severe than the consequences of co-existing with a reckless president who is not aware of the complexities and complications of politics. The reason for this is that the bloc that supports him has not changed its position and it represents the foundation of the state, made up of WASPs (White Anglo-Saxon Protestant). This bloc would not remain silent in the event that Trump is overthrown and would ultimately create dangerous divisions in society.
Therefore, the deep state was convinced that living with him is better than getting rid of him and that they could later solve the problems he caused with their allies, as well as continue to pressure him to change his direction on various matters.
As for Trump, he remains loyal to his two most supportive groups: firsts, the aforementioned group, the WASPs, who are concerned with his domestic policies, particularly the economic ones. A group within the WASPs, which has the most impact, i.e. the White Evangelicals, are concerned with a doctrinal matter represented by the support of Israel based on their beliefs regarding Armageddon, Jesus Christ as Saviour, and the end of time. As for the second group, it is the Israeli lobby, which everyone knows is the most capable of causing trouble for the president if they decide to and the most capable of stopping him from being removed.
This helps us understand Trump’s obsession with Israel, which was highlighted by his position on Jerusalem and the refugees, the known details of the Deal of the Century, and recently the Golan Heights issue, which is linked to Israel’s interests. The result is that we are now facing positions that have an aspect of interests for Trump and which are not free.
After 52 years it is time for the United States to fully recognize Israel’s Sovereignty over the Golan Heights, which is of critical strategic and security importance to the State of Israel and Regional Stability!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 21, 2019
It is important to consider, for a moment, the official Arab positions on Trump’s policies, most recently the position on the Golan Heights. They prove that the official Arab situation has reached an unprecedented level of decline, unseen in many decades. This is evidenced by the fact that the positions have not gone beyond expressing sorrow, either in response to Trump’s position on Jerusalem or his position on the Golan Heights. However, this seems useless in light of the major Arab axes not having their priorities in order.
More importantly, there is a positive aspect to Trump’s policies, which push Israel towards more arrogance, as such policies will have a positive impact on the conflict as a whole since it will, for the first time, expose what Israel really want from the settlement and solutions. It will do so without beating around the bush, which seems to have ended given the arrogance sweeping the Israeli leadership, and it reached its peak and the decline of the Arab situation after achieving what they failed to achieve after the Oslo Accords and the Iraq invasion.
Such overconfidence will take the conflict back to its basics, which was lost by the Oslo Accords and its results, especially the PA, which was designed to serve the occupation.
On the American front, we can say that the level of Israeli control over American decision-making, in light of Trump’s competition with the Democrats to please Israel and gain the support of the Israeli lobby, which has historically favoured the Democratic Party in the pre-George W Bush era, is unprecedented.
In short, the Israelis have peaked and they can only go downhill now. This decline is the result of a complicated equation made up of Palestinian and Arab policies regarding the ways to deal with the occupation. This is countered by the result of the internal American struggle against a minority’s domination over political foreign decisions. All of this makes us look forward to the future, especially as the Palestinians continue to persevere. They are only being disappointed and let down by the policies of an incapable leadership that has partisan and sectarian legitimacy that lets down its nationalism in favour of sectarianism.
The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.