US presidential election 2024: Striking the right balance will be essential

As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, the contest between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump is highly charged. Polls show both candidates with close vote shares, and the success of each campaign will depend on effectively galvanising their support base, convincing undecided voters and winning swing states. The likes of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin will once again play a decisive role in determining the election outcome.

Harris’s campaign began with an emphasis on diversity and inclusion. During her rallies, the vice president has highlighted the theme of “freedom” in relation to issues such as gun safety, LGBT rights and access to abortion. She has also made the economic challenges of the middle class, housing affordability and illegal immigration key topics of her campaign messaging.

Minorities, women and young voters are Harris’s main target audience. These demographic groups are vital to the Democratic Party’s base, and Harris’s candidacy as both a woman and a person of Afro-Asian descent has the potential to mobilise them directly. However, one of the biggest challenges that her campaign will face is the need to shift further left to gain the support of progressives, which may alienate centrist voters if rhetoric is tailored to this demographic. This is especially critical because it already seems highly unlikely that these groups will vote for Trump. This dynamic represents one of the most critical aspects of Harris’s campaign, as she must strike a balance between the progressive and centrist wings within her party.

In this context, the selection of Tim Walz as Harris’s running mate is a significant part of the campaign strategy. Walz’s appeal to rural voters is especially important in an election where the rural-urban divide will be a key factor. The Midwest has been a crucial battleground in recent elections, with narrow margins often determining the outcome. Walz’s presence is a strategically important move to appeal to voters in this region. His background as a teacher, ex-American football coach and former National Guardsman resonates with Midwest voters who value public service and community involvement. However, given that Walz’s national profile is relatively low, the Democratic campaign will need to allocate significant resources to boost his visibility on the national stage.

A major hurdle for Harris in this endeavour will be to separate herself from criticism of the Biden administration.

This is especially so given the critiques of her approach to immigration and border security, which may pose significant challenges in her presidential campaign. In this context, her reference to her earlier career during a rally in Arizona — where she mentioned her role as California’s Attorney General and her pursuit of international gangs and human traffickers — could have an impact. By acknowledging that the country’s immigration system is broken while emphasising that strong border security and a pathway to earned citizenship are the solutions, Harris might appeal to undecided voters who are concerned about the issue. 

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Something else that the Democrats need to address is the situation in Gaza. According to research by Ryan Burge, 83.7 per cent of Muslim voters in the US supported Biden in the 2020 presidential election, along with a significant majority of Jewish voters, 69.9 per cent of whom also voted for Biden. As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza escalates and protest voices against the Biden administration’s role in the conflict grow louder at universities and public rallies, it is crucial for Harris to strike a balance on this issue for the success of her campaign.

Donald Trump, meanwhile, claims to represent the “forgotten” parts of American society. He offers a strong and clear message, particularly on issues like the economy, immigration and national security. The decisions Trump made during his presidency regarding the economy and national security garnered significant support among business circles and conservative voters. This gives Trump a substantial advantage during periods of heightened economic concerns.

By portraying himself as someone “targeted” by the media, Trump successfully garners the support of voters who distrust mainstream media.

Additionally, his active presence on social media and his stance against traditional media allow him to communicate his messages directly to voters. In this context, it’s important not to overlook the support he receives from devoted social media followers and influential figures like Elon Musk on platforms such as X.

Trump proved in the 2016 and 2020 elections that he possesses a loyal and active voter base. However, while this base is loyal, it also poses a challenge. Trump’s harsh rhetoric and his attempts at humorous remarks about his opponent’s ethnic background, along with his legal battles, make it difficult for him to extend his appeal beyond his core supporters. This polarisation could be a significant disadvantage in an election where attracting independent and swing voters is going to be crucial.

Trump’s choice of J. D. Vance as his running mate is a strategic move aimed at solidifying his influence among rural voters, particularly in the Rust Belt states, which were key to his 2016 victory. Vance’s background and message resonate with rural Americans, but his association with the more extreme elements of the Republican Party may limit his appeal to moderate and independent voters.

It is expected that there will be a historic voter turnout, and the key to victory will hinge on securing swing states. Harris and Walz aim to mobilise urban voters and, with Walz’s appeal, rural voters as well. Conversely, Trump and Vance must consolidate their base and recapture areas that leaned towards Biden in 2020. The Democrats, particularly Harris-Walz, hold an edge with independents due to their complementary appeal, unlike Trump-Vance.

The challenge for Democrats now is to energise their diverse support base without side-lining centrists, while Republicans need to sustain their core supporters’ enthusiasm amidst Trump’s divisive rhetoric. Both sides will need to strike the right balance.

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