Trump will pick up his second term where he left off in the first

The features of the Donald Trump administration’s foreign policy have begun taking shape, especially related to Israel, Palestine and the Middle East, in general, through a series of appointments that include Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor, Mike Huckabee as Ambassador to Israel and Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the UN. The common denominator among them all is their absolute support for Israel and opposition to Palestinian rights, as reflected in Mike Huckabee’s statements to the Israeli Army Radio, in which he did not rule out the possibility of the Trump administration agreeing to the Israeli government’s annexation of the West Bank to Israel.

Looking at these appointments and reviewing the biographies of the senior officials responsible for US foreign policy, it has become easy to anticipate what Donald Trump’s policy will be over the next four years, towards Palestine, Israel and the region, in general.

It is also possible to predict what this policy will be if we take into consideration the policy he adopted in his first term, which is still present in the memory of the Palestinians, when he moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, declared Israel’s right to annex the occupied Syrian Golan Heights, gave the green light to Israel to annex the Jordan Valley and parts of the West Bank, and proposed the “Deal of the Century” plan for a peaceful settlement, a deal which greatly diminishes the rights of the Palestinian people, in addition to closing the PLO office in Washington.

OPINION: The diamond industry and multinationals are complicit in Israel’s genocide

Another indication that Trump may pick up where he left off in his first term is the determination of US administrations, whether Republican or Democratic, in their unlimited support for Israel since its establishment, for religious reasons, the Zionist influence in US political institutions and for Washington’s interests in the Middle East region.

Moreover, Trump has started calculating the bills he needs to pay to those who supported him before entering the White House on 20 January, 2025, such as paying back the $100 million to Jewish billionaire, Miriam Adelson, in exchange for his support for the annexation of the West Bank to Israel. This is in addition to the possibility of the Republican Party controlling the Senate and the House of Representatives, which will strengthen support for Israel.

Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and the ministers in his government are optimistic and almost certain about annexing the West Bank, or parts of it, as the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation quoted Netanyahu, in closed talks earlier, stressing the need to returning the issue of annexing the West Bank to his government’s agenda, when Trump assumes his duties as President of the United States on 20 January.

Netanyahu’s statement was accompanied by a statement by Finance Minister and Defense Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, published by Yedioth Ahronoth, stating that 2025 is the year of Israeli sovereignty over “Judea and Samaria”, and that he has instructed the Settlement Administration and the Civil Administration to begin preparing the necessary infrastructure to implement sovereignty over the West Bank.

As for Trump’s position on the Israeli war on Gaza and how to end it, he indicated his position on this more than once during his election campaign, when he said, for example, that if he were in power, the 7 October attacks would not have occurred, and addressed Netanyahu saying that he must end the war quickly and gain victory.

He said that the war and the killing must stop, and he pledged to Arab and Muslim leaders in Michigan to end the war. However, Trump considering ending the war to be a decision that is up to Israel, when he attacked his Democratic rival, Kamala Harris, for calling for a ceasefire, which confirms that Trump’s vision for ending the war must be achieved with an Israeli victory.

But what policy might Trump pursue to end the war?

OPINION: Netanyahu’s diabolical undeclared war objectives in Gaza

Despite the vagueness and sometimes contradictory nature of his statements about stopping the war, it is likely that this will be done through American-European diplomatic intervention, but on Israeli terms, through negotiations in which the balance is tilted in favour of Tel Aviv. Since Trump is a businessman who always seeks to complete quick and profitable deals, he may work to achieve a ceasefire by imposing conditions on the Resistance, in exchange for promises to ease the siege, improve living conditions in the Gaza Strip and rebuild it. This may be accompanied by increased pressure on Iran to stop its support for Hezbollah and other resistance factions, and he may also work to reach a truce without changes to the status quo.

The Middle East during Trump’s presidency over the next four years will certainly be different from what it was before, and expectations signify that it will witness several changes related to the balance of power and weakness between regional powers and American interests in the region. Leading these changes is the breakdown of “strategic deterrence” in the Middle East, as the war on Gaza shook a group of firm assumptions in the region, including the attack of 7 October, 2023, which threatened the existence of Israel as an entity, not to mention the Houthis’ threat in Yemen to the US, Israel and Western countries, in general, by closing the sea lanes in the Red Sea, causing damage to global trade.

If Trump picks up where he left off in his first term, by allowing the settlers and their extremist leaders in the Israeli government to annex the Jordan Valley and parts of the West Bank, and allowing Netanyahu to achieve his “absolute victory” and his “new Middle East”, this will basically mean the ethnic cleansing of more than two-thirds of the Palestinians in the Occupied West Bank, and the influx of large numbers of refugees into Jordan, which may consider this act a declaration of war. This also means that Trump, whose policy is based on deals, fantasy and irrationality, will accelerate the destruction of the situation in the Middle East, which he began in his first term.

OPINION: Taming Netanyahu

This article appeared in Arabic in Arabi21 on 30 November, 2024.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.