Will Assad's fall revive the Arab Spring?

The ouster of Bashar Al-Assad has brought Syria back to the point before the intervention of Russia and Iran stopped the opposition forces in their tracks when they were on the verge of a decisive victory. Then, the “international community” colluded to block the revolutionaries and stifle the Arab Spring across the region. The events of the past two or three weeks have turned the clock back to that revolutionary moment in time. The counter-revolution has been stunned, and the overthrow of Assad has removed a major obstacle that was preventing the popular Arab revolutionary movement from completing its journey within Syria on one hand, and across the Arab world on the other.

The dam has burst and the revolutionary river is back to its natural course. The strength of the flow is exceptional, and it cannot be stopped. There is a new feeling of hope among the people and now may be an opportunity to intensify the flow into a new revolutionary wave; Assad’s downfall could well revive the Arab Spring. This is the moment that the impossible suddenly looks possible; not easy, but achievable. Wounds must be healed quickly, strength rebuilt and the streets filled to continue what was started and then cut short so cruelly and abruptly.

Syria’s neighbours, Turkiye excluded, are all at risk of destabilisation, and their regimes could also fall.

Lebanon has long been propped up by the Assad regime and is already in a very bad way economically and politically; the invasion by the occupation state has made matters worse. Moreover, Iran is facing internal crises, and its proxies in Syria and Lebanon have been hit badly. However, it may be that Egypt is the country that may be most affected by the wave of unrest, for many reasons, most notably the growing popular discontent due to political and economic crises coupled with state oppression.

READ: Haaretz tells Israelis, ‘It’s time to choose life over death’

The situation in Syria, therefore, opens the door to many possibilities, on many levels. We could see popular confrontations with the Arab regimes, or even challenges to their absolute silence about what the Israeli occupation state is doing to the Palestinians, the Lebanese and now the Syrians, and their respective territories.

The speed with which the Zionists sent their troops into the demilitarised zone in the occupied Golan Heights demonstrated that they know very well that the status quo which saw their nominal border protected by the Assad regime is no more. The success of the Syrian revolution is clearly making Tel Aviv think about what could happen next. Contrary to the claims of the so-called axis of resistance (when did Assad’s Syrian Arab Army ever do anything again the occupation state?), Israel’s move in Syria is a clear statement that it doesn’t fear the regimes which control the region under the smokescreen of Arabism and simply shout slogans with no real heart or meaning. It is these regimes, remember, which have destroyed any real resistance to the occupation state and acted to serve its interests.

The Arab people are aware of this.

They see in Syria over the past 50 years a reflection of their own subjugation, giving them hope for what might be possible for them as well. The streets of the Arab world may be filled again, and sooner than we think. The ongoing oppression of legitimate aspirations across the region and denial of basic human rights are what, when brought together, fuel revolutions. Bashar Al-Assad ignored his people and tried to suppress such aspirations. He is no longer part of the equation. Regimes across the region should learn from this, and bring about essential changes and reforms sooner rather than later.

This article first appeared in Arabic in Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on 18 December 2024

READ: Syrian coalition calls for ‘comprehensive, non-sectarian’ transitional government

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.