A Story of Retreat: America’s Military Failure in the Red Sea

In spring 2025, the Red Sea became a tense battleground between the United States and Yemen’s Houthis—a part of the so-called Resistance Axis who had intensified their attacks on international shipping. U.S. President Donald Trump, vowing to restore deterrence and secure freedom of navigation, launched a large-scale military operation titled Operation Rough Rider against the Houthis. This campaign—costing over $1 billion and involving aircraft carrier strike groups, B-2 bombers, and advanced missiles—was intended to cripple the Houthis’ military capabilities. However, just two months after the operation began, on May 6, 2025, Trump unexpectedly announced a ceasefire agreement with the Houthis—a deal effectively brokered by bypassing Israel, and one that ultimately brought the U.S.-Yemen conflict to a halt.

Military and Strategic Ineffectiveness

The U.S. military operation, launched in March 2025, aimed to destroy the Houthis’ missile arsenal, drones, and military infrastructure. Yet despite massive spending and cutting-edge weapons, it failed to meet its strategic goals. Operation Rough Rider targeted over 800 locations but had limited impact on Houthi capabilities. Relying on underground facilities and Iranian support, the Houthis not only survived the assaults but escalated their attacks on commercial and military vessels. This situation posed the greatest challenge to U.S. maritime hegemony since World War II; the Houthis became bolder, repeatedly targeting even American warships.

READ: US launched 1,712 attacks on Yemen since 15 March, Houthis report

This ineffectiveness stemmed in part from America’s overly military-focused strategy. Military responses alone could not resolve the Red Sea crisis, whose roots lie in regional tensions and Yemen’s internal issues. The lack of coordination with regional actors such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE—formerly active in the anti-Houthi coalition—also contributed to this failure. Similar to the earlier Operation Prosperity Guardian under Biden, which failed to restore commercial trust in Red Sea shipping routes, Trump’s more aggressive approach faced the same limitations. Despite intensified attacks, his campaign could not fully halt Houthi operations.

The Ceasefire Agreement: A Case Study in Failure

On May 6, 2025, Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would halt its bombing campaign in exchange for the Houthis ceasing attacks on American ships. This agreement—mediated by Oman—was presented as a de-escalation measure but was quickly interpreted as a strategic defeat for the United States. While the Houthis stopped attacking U.S. ships, they continued strikes against Israel. This exposed the limits of the deal and underscored a lack of coordination with Israel, America’s key ally.

The move to bypass Israel and Netanyahu was particularly striking. Israel was completely blindsided by the announcement, and a concurrent Houthi missile attack on Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv prompted retaliatory Israeli strikes on Hodeidah Port and Sanaa Airport. Port Sudan and Sanaa Airport as Trump’s exit from the “Yemen quagmire,” but emphasized that it did not end the conflict. The Houthis, led by Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, labelled the agreement “a great American defeat” and portrayed it as a victory, while The Economist a “Faustian pact” that strengthened Houthi control over Yemen.

Causes of the Failure

Several factors contributed to Trump’s failed war against the Houthis. First, the overreliance on military solutions ignored the geopolitical complexity of the region. The U.S. air campaign allowed European and Gulf countries to “free-ride,” placing a disproportionate financial and military burden on the U.S. The combination of regional reluctance to participate and the Houthis’ high resilience prolonged the crisis.

Second, poor internal coordination and operational mismanagement within Trump’s administration played a key role. The accidental leak of military plans on the Signal app revealed a glaring lapse in coordination and operational security. This incident—along with appointments like Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defence, known for his hawkish stance—further entrenched the military-first approach over diplomacy.

READ: Arab nations hail Oman-mediated ceasefire between Yemen’s Houthis, US 

Third, ignoring commercial and economic dynamics also contributed to the failure. Shipping companies’ decision to avoid the Red Sea was not only due to security threats, but also because of declining global demand caused by Trump’s trade policies. This reduced the urgency of restoring Red Sea navigation and undercut the campaign’s stated objectives.

Consequences for the U.S. and the Houthis

Trump’s failed war and the ceasefire agreement had deep consequences for both U.S. credibility and Houthi positioning in Yemen. For America, the failure weakened its regional and global standing. The Houthis emerged stronger after surviving over 1,000 airstrikes, casting doubt on U.S. military efficacy. The heavy use of precision-guided munitions—vital for potential conflicts with China—raised concerns within U.S. Indo-Pacific Command.

Moreover, Washington’s decision to bypass Israel created tension with its key ally. Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Yemen, without U.S. coordination, revealed fractures within the regional alliance. The lack of European involvement further isolated the U.S. in handling the Red Sea crisis.

For the Houthis, the ceasefire bolstered their standing in Yemen and across the region. They framed the agreement as a victory, solidifying their control over large parts of the country. Continued attacks on Israel despite the U.S. ceasefire illustrated their regional ambitions and unwavering resolve to play a major role in reshaping Middle Eastern and even global dynamics. It has now become clear that the Houthis can, without question, disrupt the global economy by threatening Red Sea shipping.

Conclusion

Donald Trump’s 2025 war against the Houthis stands as a textbook case of strategic failure in U.S. foreign policy. The costly military operation, launched to restore deterrence and secure the Red Sea, not only failed to weaken Houthi power but also led to a ceasefire that revealed America’s diplomatic and military limitations. The 6 May, 2025 ceasefire, concluded without Israeli coordination, epitomized this failure—it did not halt Houthi attacks on Israel and instead reinforced their regional status.

The roots of this failure—excessive military reliance, poor internal coordination, and neglect of geopolitical and economic dynamics—highlight the urgent need for broader strategies. For the U.S., the war weakened its credibility and strained its military resources, while the Houthis emerged more powerful and emboldened. The future of Red Sea security and Yemen’s stability depends on the international community’s ability to craft a multilateral approach that transcends militarism and embraces diplomacy, cooperation, and regional economic realities. Without such a transformation, the Red Sea will remain a flashpoint of enduring crisis.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.