Egypt between the Air Marshal and the General

“The Air Marshal vs the General” is an appropriate description of the battle currently going on in Egypt. There is nothing left to hide; the once-hidden battle between the centres of power in the government has come out into the open and is subject to all possibilities. According to Shorouk newspaper, Air Marshal Ahmed Shafik, who fled Egypt and now lives in the UAE, is fighting an existential proxy war with the General, now President, Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi, through his supporters in state institutions. A harsh and firm message was issued to these men and can be summarised in one phrase: “Get it together and show some respect.”

This is how the battle of the “titans” progressed from a secret to a public struggle; they have started to make their moves in the open. Shafik is still deluded in believing that he is the legitimate president of Egypt and that Mohamed Morsi “stole the presidency” from him after making a deal with the Military Council, which was ruling the country at the time. Meanwhile, Al-Sisi views Shafik as “a man from the past” and one of the faces that should disappear from the scene to make room for him.

This battle may be nothing more than a smokescreen to cover Al-Sisi’s miserable failure after one official year in power (he has actually been running the country since 3 July, 2013). The corrupt media outlets have been trying to promote and exaggerate the “conspiracy” being plotted against the General, which is supposedly hindering his success and seeking to overthrow him. The media also justified the continued state of oppression in the country, allowing the people to overlook the need to hold Al-Sisi accountable for what he has achieved or done during the past year. As such, it is no surprise that this fabricated battle has been accompanied by statements made by pro-government journalists who have blamed the people and called on them to migrate and leave the country. The “Air Marshal vs the General” may actually be the latest trick to distract attention from the true problems facing the country, to the extent of pushing the “military elites” to demand that the General take firm action against the opposition; I don’t know what else they want him to do. The military elites have also incited him openly to commit another massacre, similar to the massacre committed by Muhammad Ali against the Mamelukes in the early 19th century, to eliminate the core of power in the country and re-form the political scene in a manner that allows him to strengthen the foundations underpinning his rule.

However, this does not mean that there are no serious divisions and contradictions within the government. They stem from the disputes over the distribution of the spoils from “June 30”. Many who supported Al-Sisi, particularly businessmen and influential national figures, are aware that he has no political vision or experience and that he was tasked with one mission only; eliminating the Muslim Brotherhood. However, after rising to power, he has sought to marginalise these supporters and gradually get rid of them. He failed to do so and this has driven them to revolt against him. He has also failed, throughout the past year, to control the disputes between the centres of power, especially between the army and the police, whose disputes are now out in the open for all to see.

Contrary to what it seems, Al-Sisi is the weakest link in the current battle. I do not rule out the possibility of the battle reaching the point where it would be considered feasible to sacrifice him on the condition that it is done from within the government, not from outside. It seems that some domestic and foreign parties have proposed such a scenario. This may explain the media campaign launched against the General a while ago, which may have been used to test the waters. This coincided with regional talk about Al-Sisi becoming a burden, especially after the latest death sentences, which seem to have turned the tables against him. I would, therefore, not be surprised if the issue of tyranny has become a topic for discussion in the regional and international circles in an attempt to avoid the imminent explosion.

The most important questions remain. How will the General respond to these actions? Will he begin a process to eliminate everyone who supports these actions? Will he be successful if he does?

I doubt it.

Translated from Al-Araby Al-Jadid, 29 May, 2015.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.