Iran deploys fighters to Syria in what the opposition calls 'occupation'

Thousands of fighters from Iran have reportedly entered Syria in the last two weeks to assist the pro-regime forces and militants. Multiple news reports say that Afghans and Iraqis are among the fighters sent by Tehran. Positioned around the capital Damascus and the coastal province of Latakia, the recently arrived foreign fighters are estimated to be between 7,000 and 15,000 in strength.

“The Iranian involvement in Syria has developed from support for the regime to direct occupation of Syria,” said Khalid Al-Naser, a member of the political opposition Syrian National Coalition. He added that the coalition confirmed the reports of fighters arriving in Damascus but said that the positioning of foreign fighters around Latakia – Assad’s hometown and regime stronghold – is not yet certain.

Days prior to the news, the former leader of Iran’s elite Quds Force, General Qassem Soliemani, described his country’s new military strategy in Syria as a “surprise” to the world. “The world will be surprised by what we are preparing, in cooperation with Syrian military leaders,” he was quoted by Iran’s official IRNA news agency. Many have characterised Soliemani as Iran’s mastermind and battlefield strategist for its proxies in Syria and Iraq.

The presence of Iranians in support of regime forces is noticeable in Damascus, said Belal Muhamad, a resident and activist from Damascus suburbs; that name is a pseudonym. He added, however, that there has been no unusual activity among pro-regime Iranians in the capital that would indicate the arrival of such a large number of foreign fighters. Muhamad, who spoke to MEMO over Skype, believes that such reports are just “rumours” leaked by the regime to the media to “intimidate the rebels.”

The Assad regime would not have survived following the uprising in Syria in 2011 had it not aligned itself with a strong regional power. Iran has played this role for Bashar Al-Assad; Tehran has provided aid to the Damascus government in the form of logistical, military and financial support.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards have been reported to be active in Syria since 2013. Iranian-funded Shia militiamen from Lebanon and Iraq have been involved in fighting in Syria since early 2012, supporting the pro-Assad combatants in various fronts in Al-Qalamoun, Damascus and Idlib.

In 2006, Syria and Iran signed an agreement on military cooperation and cited “common threats” affecting the two countries. AFP quoted Syria’s then defence minister saying that Iran “considers Syria’s security its own security.” In 2009, both republics signed a memorandum of understanding on joint defence and military affairs.

Iran’s support to help keep President Bashar Al-Assad in power has been steady, despite international pressure advising against support for the regime and seemingly in contrast to Iran’s nuclear negotiations with the West. For the Iranian government, the Syrian territory is critical to maintaining its regional interests, primarily against its historic rival Sunni power, Saudi Arabia.

For years, Saudi Arabia has expressed concern about Iran’s intentions to expand influence in the region. Earlier this year, the government in Riyadh established an alliance with Turkey to unite on efforts against the Assad regime in Syria; thus far, the alliance has resulted in major advancements on the ground for the rebels.

The pressure from Riyadh against the Assad government is intended to counter Iranian influence over Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. Saudi Arabia views the expansion of Iranian regional influence as a direct threat to its own national security. Accordingly, Riyadh has taken action to fight Iranian proxies in the region, demonstrated through the country’s military involvement in Yemen and in Syria.

“Now, there is a comprehensive confrontation between the Iranian project and the counter project that is led by Saudi and Gulf countries in an alliance with Turkey,” said Al-Naser. He added that Saudi Arabia’s strategy became clear with the mobilisation of Arab coalition forces to fight the Houthis in Yemen and with the recent aid to Syria’s opposition.

Syrian opposition forces have advanced significantly in recent months, causing major losses to the regime. Since capturing Idlib in March, rebels are positioned just a few miles away from Assad’s stronghold.

The Assad regime considers the capital Damascus, the west-central cities and the coast to be vital for it to sustain control of the country, an anonymous source close to the regime told AFP last week. According to the source, the Damascus government has appealed to Iran and Russia to boost their support. Assad’s appeal came after suffering several losses at the hands of opposition forces.

Al-Naser argues that Iran is trying to do as much as possible to keep Assad in power. He adds, however, that the recent deployment of fighters into Syria might indicate the launch of “Plan B”, a potential strategy to split Syria apart so that Assad forces maintain full control of the coast and the capital and establish an independent state.

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Abdulrahman Al-Masri is an independent journalist based in Canada. Follow him on twitter at @AbdulrhmanMasri.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.