Haniyeh’s assassination unleashes a new era of political violence

The assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh in a “treacherous Zionist raid” on his Tehran residence has ignited a firestorm of fury, as Iran’s new president vows to make Israel “regret” its “cowardly action”. The Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, has decreed that avenging Haniyeh’s killing is Tehran’s sacred duty, casting a long shadow of retribution. Meanwhile, Israel remains tight-lipped, its military merely conducting a “situational assessment” amidst the carnage. This latest provocation comes mere hours after an Israeli strike in Beirut killed three innocent people, including two children, and wounded 74.

As the Israeli war machine ravages southern Lebanon, displacing over 80,000 citizens, and unleashes a maelstrom of air strikes upon Syria, rekindling the embers of animosity with Damascus, the true motives of the occupation state start to surface. This relentless campaign of aggression has been punctuated by a series of targeted killings, including the assassinations of nuclear physicist Dr Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, senior Islamic Republican Guard Corps officer General Hassan Sayad Khodaei, Colonel Ali Esmailzadeh, another high-ranking IRGC officer, and Dr Ayoub Entezari, a prominent scientist and former IRGC member, all of which have been attributed to Israel, with some also implicating the United States. The Israeli attack earlier this year on the Iranian consulate in Damascus — a wanton act of aggression — betrayed a hydra-headed agenda, driven by an insatiable hunger for control, as Israel’s shadowy hand orchestrates its deadly violence, from the streets of Tehran to the skies of Syria, leaving a trail of devastation.

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The repercussions of this violence reverberate throughout the region. Meanwhile, the death toll in Gaza mounts, with a staggering 39,445 Palestinians killed in Israel’s war in the enclave. The spectre of unending bloodshed looms large, as the cycle of vengeance threatens to consume all in its path. Israel’s latest manoeuvre, the assassination of Haniyeh, is a calculated strategy to decapitate the ceasefire talks. This is a sinister pattern of behaviour, where the eradication of the Palestinian leadership serves as a cold-blooded means to an end: the systematic weakening of legitimate resistance. Israel’s actions are fuelled by a desire for dominance and control, driving a Machiavellian agenda that prioritises power and control over peace. This approach perpetuates a cycle of violence, undermining efforts to salvage peace and instead cementing the forces of retribution as a permanent fixture in the region.

Haniyeh’s assassination, though, reveals a more complex narrative.

It aims to strengthen Israel’s deterrence factor, hampering groups like Hezbollah psychologically, while sending a clear message of belligerence. Moreover, this calculated move serves as a cynical ploy to bolster Netanyahu’s waning political fortunes within Israel’s as yet undeclared borders, where discontent with his leadership still simmers. With this high-profile political murder, Netanyahu seeks to divert attention from domestic criticism and fortify his position as Israel’s strongman in charge, further entrenching its hard-line stance and perpetuating the violence.

In this Byzantine-like dance of death and power, one truth remains constant: the far-right Israeli regime’s unyielding pursuit of hegemony, no matter the human cost. As the region teeters on the brink of chaos, one question echoes through the void: what next in this grim cycle of retribution and domination?

A grim regional impact is on the cards, as the murder of Haniyeh while in Tehran to attend the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian sent shockwaves throughout the Middle East. This “cowardly act that will not go unpunished”, said senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk. It extinguished the pragmatic face of Hamas, leaving a power vacuum that threatens to unleash militancy.

OPINION: It’s both criminal and desperate; that’s why Israel assassinated Ismail Haniyeh

Haniyeh was essentially a diplomat who navigated the treacherous landscape of Arab capitals with finesse, seeking a ceasefire in Gaza and tempering extremism. His presence served as a bulwark against the militarism of Yahya Sinwar, the Gaza-based leader of Hamas. With Haniyeh’s demise, a chasm has opened, inviting the forces of radicalism to seize total control. In this void, a chilling convergence of interests has emerged, as disparate groups like Hezbollah, the Houthis and Iran’s Quds Force coalesce around a common cause: vengeance against Israel. The assassination has forged an alliance united in the quest for retribution, with Iran poised to become the epicentre of a more militarised and violent “axis of resistance”.

The region teeters on the edge of the abyss. Hamas, already reeling from relentless pressure, has been pushed to the brink, probably contemplating a backlash that Israel may have provoked deliberately to justify its war aims. Now, the resistance movement and Haniyeh’s successor, whoever it may be, faces a fateful choice: embrace the shadows as a guerrilla force or be a political leader who can extend an olive branch. This glimmer of hope seems fleeting, as the Hamas network readies its arsenal to strike. We may even see Hamas splinter into rogue factions, each fuelling the chaos, as opportunistic followers forge their own militant paths. Although Hamas has never carried out any armed resistance outside the borders of historic Palestine, that may change.

On the other side of the Atlantic, meanwhile, a decisive drama unfolds, as Israel’s stalwart champion the United States gets ready to choose a new president.

Joe Biden’s tenure has already seen a staggering $12.5 billion in military aid bestowed upon Israel, a deluge of support that has reshaped the regional landscape.

Meanwhile, Trump’s past allegiance to Israel’s cause has been a beacon of hope for some, a harbinger of doom for others; his re-election would likely usher in an era of unyielding support, casting a long and ominous shadow over the Palestinian people. As the electoral tide rises, the world watches with bated breath, aware that the outcome will be a geopolitical reckoning, one that will recalibrate the fate of nations.

In essence, the fragile peace process hangs by a thread, threatening to snap under the weight of unrelenting aggression. Haniyeh’s assassination looks set to unleash a devastating chain reaction, propelling the Middle East towards further chaos. The world must act to prevent this, with urgent decisive action for a ceasefire, to revive the peace process, and work towards a lasting resolution.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.