Libya in light of Egypt-Turkiye rapprochement

With the arrival of President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi in Ankara, on 4 September, for talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the long feud between the two regional powers appears to have ended on good terms. For years, both men have been trading barbs against each other, until relations started to warm up a couple of years ago. By the time Mr. Erdogan arrived in Cairo last February for his first visit since 2012, together with the exchange of ambassadors – who were expelled in 2013 – Cairo and Ankara appeared on genuine and serious political rapprochement.

Ankara has been all but furious with President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi since he took power for toppling the former elected late President, Mohamed Morsi, in 2013, who died during a court hearing on 19 July, 2019. President Morsi was close to Ankara and to Mr. Erdogan, personally. Both men hail from the same ideological background, that of the Muslim Brotherhood, against which Mr. Al-Sisi launched an all-out war, eventually declaring them a “terrorist” organisation.

After Mr. Morsi’s death, President Erdogan participated in a prayer in Istanbul mosque and paid tribute to his dead ally by describing him as a “martyr”, before blaming the Egyptian authorities for his death, calling them “tyrants” and “cowards” because “they could not even deliver his body to his family”.

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With the Brotherhood toppled from power in Egypt, Erdogan’s Turkiye became the movement’s preferred refuge for many top Muslim Brotherhood leaders who survived the Egyptian authorities’ crackdown. In Turkiye, they found sympathy, safety, support and freedom to vent their anger against the new Egyptian authorities. Through different media platforms, including private TV stations, they made Mr. Al-Sisi their enemy number one, calling for his removal by encouraging Egyptians to revolt against him, all with the approval of Mr. Erdogan, of course, who believed that Mr. Al-Sisi is a dictator and, above all, not the best for Egypt. The enmity between the two sides reached a point where reducing it, let alone ending it, was not easy.

That animosity between Cairo and Ankara grew more hostile and tense, becoming, in many instances, a personal feud between Mr. Al-Sisi and Mr. Erdogan, and each country took measures against the other, including each other’s regional polices.

Differences between both sides were bound to include counter-regional measures, in each country’s attempt to further protect itself through building alliances and being active in hotspots of disputes and conflicts, of which the entire Middle East and North Africa region has plenty.

Libya, at the time, was one of the hotspots where Ankara and Cairo came close to a military clash, as each capital supported different sides in the Libyan misery. Turkiye aligned itself with the United Nations recognised government, the Government of National Accord headed by Fayez Al-Sarraj, who is said to be of Turkish descent. Cairo chose to befriend the parallel government based in Benghazi but without actually recognising it as the only Libyan government—a paradox that will be continued in later years.

During Mr. Erdogan’s visit to Cairo last February, Mr. Al-Sisi described Cairo-Ankara “cooperation” on Libya could become a “model to follow”. He probably meant at the regional level but, in Libya, Cairo has been competing with Ankara, not cooperating. Back in 2020, the same Mr. Al-Sisi talked of a potential threat to his country represented by the presence of Turkish troops and loyal Syrian mercenaries on Libyan soil, prompting him to draw a “redline” at the city of Sirte, and having his Parliament approve the “deployment” of troops outside Egypt when the President sees fit. Ankara, at the same time, was actively involved in the war between Tripoli’s government and General Khalifa Haftar, who attempted to take the capital by force but was defeated and forced to withdraw to Sirte, where his forces used to be before he launched his war in April 2019.  Egypt demanded that all foreign troops, including regular Turkish forces, leave Libya, but they never did.

But, in his joint press briefing with his host in Ankara last week, Mr. Al-Sisi called for the departure of all “illegal foreign forces and mercenaries” from Libya, implying that the Turkish forces there are “legitimate” since they were deployed at the request of the former Government of National Accord back in 2019 and 2020. Cairo was also angered by the maritime accord signed between Tripoli and Ankara, which it saw as illegal.

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The number of cooperation documents signed, in conclusion of Al-Sisi’s visit, indicates shared Ankara-Cairo intentions to bury their differences, even in Libya, where they have agreed to the principles of elections rather than fighting to end the conflict. They also appear to have agreed to continue competing in Libya, but less publicly than before, where any contentious issues could be tackled behind-the-scenes. Their proxies in both Benghazi and Tripoli are not in hurry to end the conflict, meaning that neither Cairo not Ankara are required to be more Libyan than Libyans themselves. What matters to both is their own interests, even if that is at the expense of Libya, as long as the country is led by corrupt and power hungry politicians who care only about their own interests, not those of their country.

In terms of long-term vision and policy vis-à-vis Libya, Turkiye is more articulate, clear and serious compared to Cairo’s clumsy and sometimes confusing approaches, as manifested in receiving eastern Libya’s Prime Minister, Osama Hamad, on 11 August, by Egypt’s Prime Minister. To which Tripoli’s government responded by expelling two Egyptian diplomats from Cairo’s embassy in Tripoli. Cairo still recognises the government of Abdulhamid Dbeibah as the only legitimate government of Libya, in line with the UN.

Comparatively, indeed, Ankara has been opening up to the eastern Libya politics, including the Speaker of the Tobruk-based Parliament who visited Ankara and met President Erdogan last December, but Ankara would not go as far as inviting any member of the Benghazi-based government since it does not recognise that government.

For Libya, as a sovereign and independent state, both Egypt and Turkiye are the same: foreign meddlers in its internal affairs just like any other meddlers. Both should not settle their disagreements on Libyan soil and both should refrain from meddling in its affairs.

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The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Middle East Monitor.